It’s not always easy to tell who wins a political debate. Sometimes performances need time for people to process them and have key moments emerge that connect with American voters. And sometimes you witness a debate performance so dominant, so one-sided, that one party in the spin room is left arguing more out of hope than belief that debates just don’t matter.
Last night was one of those nights for Democrats — and this one wasn’t even close. J.D. Vance was smooth, empathetic and emphasized his life experience with hardship and poverty. Tim Walz was nervous and unsteady from the opening question and didn’t seem to find his footing until more than an hour into the debate. He botched answers to obvious questions, not just tougher issues like his falsehoods about his past travels to China, but even questions phrased as softballs on climate, guns and migrants. He called himself a knucklehead and said he’d befriended school shooters. This was, for a relative unknown on the stage, a performance that veered from disastrous — he sounded particularly out of touch on border and immigration issues, which only happen to the most or second most important issue according to voters — to just unprepared.
Reifying his status as an MSNBC dad, Walz’s only strong moments of the night came on issues that the cable news channel hammers away on every hour: abortion and a final round on January 6. On the first point, he repeatedly lied about the nature of the law he signed in Minnesota, which is perhaps the most extreme abortion law in the country (he also lied by omission about the much-politicized cause of death of Amber Thurman, a tragedy of medical malpractice that could’ve been avoided). And on the second, whatever the strength of his response, it came on an issue that motivates Democrat partisans and the media but doesn’t even rank in the top ten for most Americans.
Democrats have to be seriously disappointed in a performance where the likes of CNN’s Jake Tapper and Abby Phillips declared it a clear win for J.D. Vance, and questioned how prepared Walz was for the moment. More than one journalist and commentator speculated that Vance’s choice to do any interview, anywhere, anytime over the past several months had served to prepare him for the stage where Walz’s repeated dodging of even friendly interviewers had left him lacking the reps you need for a nationally televised game. When MSNBC’s Nicole Wallace is reduced to accusing Vance of “mansplaining,” you know it’s time for desperate spin.
For Vance, the real challenge was to connect with the audience and make the case for Trump without getting too wonky or seeming too distant from commonly held concerns. He needed to be the hillbilly made good, not an intellectual policy tech bro. He absolutely achieved this for most of the night, and visually projected a confidence and ease with the facts that Walz, who spent most of his time bent over scribbling during answers, obviously lacked.
The moderators made very odd choices throughout the night. There were no questions about Ukraine, about China policy, about lessons learned from Covid, about school choice, about the longshoreman strike — and their decision to mute Vance’s mic early on in the midst of a healthy, polite debate about immigration seemed aggressive and disruptive.
The long-winded questions took up more time than they should, and they regularly disrupted back and forths between the candidates that were perfectly civil by forcing a new and often less interesting topic. Again, this should be the last cycle that Republicans participate in any major network debates — after the ABC and CBS performances, it’s clear these hosts just aren’t cut out for managing debates without inserting their own views and stepping all over the candidates Americans want to hear from.
This moment is why Trump picked Vance in the first place — to win the debates with the media and prosecute the case against Kamala Harris in the debate. He proved thoroughly capable of handling both tonight, and Walz proved a much less impressive debater than anyone could’ve imagined. How much it matters is an open question, but in a cycle that became so chaotic, it is hard to think it will matter less than other vice-presidential debates of the past — and it could matter a lot more in stalling the momentum of the Democratic ticket, which seems more nervous and inauthentic than joyful.
More reactions from Charles Lipson, Freddy Gray, Lee Siegel, Molly Ball.
Moderators criticized for breaking agreed upon rules, “fact checking” Vance.
CNN’s Abby Phillip, Jake Tapper slam Tim Walz performance.
Another trainwreck: Mayor Pete did the Walz debate prep: “‘Pete’s also a perfect foil for Vance,’ said Lis Smith, Buttigieg’s communications Svengali.”
Swing State Polling Remains Deadlocked
Cook Report finds margin of error leads across the swings.
A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group (September 19-25; 2,941 voters), shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states. Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 49% to 48% in a two-way matchup.
Harris has a lead within the margin of error in Arizona (+2), Michigan (+3), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2). Trump is ahead 49% to 47% in Georgia, and the two candidates are tied at 49% in North Carolina.
Since our last Swing State Project Survey in August, millions of dollars in advertising have been spent, a highly anticipated presidential debate has occurred, and there was another assassination attempt on Trump’s life. However, these significant events had little impact on the overall horse race in the battleground states.
Our August survey also found Harris with a narrow lead overall (48% to 47%) and leading or tied with Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states.
Underneath the topline numbers, though, there have been some significant shifts, most notably Trump’s slipping advantage on his two strongest issues — inflation and immigration. However, Harris has seen some slippage of her own: as her lead among independent voters has shrunk from eight points this summer to two points in September.
GOP Senate Candidates Lagging Trump
Will this correct in time for the Republicans?
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and NRSC Chair Steve Daines are grappling with an uncomfortable reality: Republican Senate challengers are lagging well behind former President Trump in public surveys.
The polling gap has baffled Republican candidates and strategists, who expected it to collapse as November neared.
Its persistence is a warning for the Republican high command that a close Trump victory in any given swing state doesn't guarantee a GOP Senate seat — even if it also signals a bloc of still-persuadable voters.
It could herald the return of something McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have seen vanish in the last two presidential races: The split-ticket voter.
There are several theories about why Senate Republicans lag behind their presidential candidate, including a lack of name ID and getting outspent.
Then there's the Trump factor. The former president appeals to many nontraditional Republicans and former working-class Democrats. Trump is "outperforming other Republicans because his base is broader than the traditional GOP coalition," Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told Axios.
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