One of the things I keep hearing from Democratic stand-ins is essentially a response to the SNL sketch about Joe Biden behind the scenes — that all the president has to do is stand up for an hour late at night (for him) and read off a teleprompter. How hard can it be? Just give him some throat coat.
Except — that’s not actually the measure. That’s the measure for inside Washington people who are exposed to the questions about age and feeblemindedness every day. Americans aren’t going to just accept that — they want a normal State of the Union as well, which actually responds to, well, this:
For their part, Democratic congress members are saying that GOP members will heckle and attempt to disrupt and distract Biden. That will probably happen, because it happens a lot in recent years. But I’m not sure they’ll need to given how low Biden’s approval is today:
Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) predicted Biden would "get interrupted many times by my colleagues across the aisle" to attempt to force gaffes.
"It's going to be early, in my opinion. And it's not going to be one or two members. I think they're looking to turn it into a mess."
The State of the Union is watched by tens of millions of people — 27 million in 2023 — making it Biden's best opportunity to reach voters before November.
"It's going to be one of the biggest audiences that the president will have this year, so it's a huge opportunity to make the case," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
A Democratic strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said simply, "Let's see some main character energy!"
The main focus will be the economy, where Biden needs a “reset” of expectations and attitude before it gets baked in during the summer.
Zients said Biden will remind people "where the economy was three years ago when the president walked into office, where we are now and where we're headed — what his vision is for the economy."
Biden will say the administration needs to keep working to create what he calls "breathing room" in family budgets — "just a little bit of leftover money" at the end of the month, as Zients put it in our interview.
Zients told Axios that besides celebrating today's record-low unemployment and strong wage growth, Biden will reveal a variety of second-term proposals on pocketbook issues.
Among the ideas he's eyeing: driving down the cost of prescription drugs, cracking down on "junk fees," expanding the housing supply and emphasizing tax fairness.
Whichever pollster consultant came up with this “breathing room” thing, it’s impossible for me not to chuckle when I hear it. There’s some alternate reality where Donald Trump used this phrase and, evoking Star Trek VI, MSNBC spends all day accusing him of calling of taking cues from Adolf Hitler for invoking household finance level Lebensraum.
Senate GOP Leadership Battle Takes Shape
McConnell’s legacy, and term limiting the leader, is at center stage.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s running to replace McConnell, wants term limits on the party leader and an end to leadership-negotiated spending bills. Senate Minority Whip John Thune, also running for leader, said the race is a “chance for a reset.” And GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso, who’s running for whip, told colleagues he wants to see a “break from where we are now.”
On top of that, some of the Senate’s hardline conservatives — knowing their odds are slim to install one of their own as leader — are looking for changes to the super PAC at the heart of McConnell’s fundraising operation, the Senate Leadership Fund.
Conservatives could be the swing votes in the GOP leader race, so emphasizing a departure from the McConnell era is a strategic benefit for leadership hopefuls. Thune told us he doesn’t see this as a criticism of the way McConnell ran the conference — though to many, that’s certainly the implication.
“Clearly this is a transition,” Thune said. “You’ve had somebody in the leader job for [17] years — that’s a long time. And I think anytime you go through a transition, there’s a pivot that comes with that.”
Term limits: Every position in the Senate GOP leadership is term-limited with the exception of the leader. Cornyn knows this well; he was term-limited out of the No. 2 job under McConnell after three Congresses. Thune is term-limited at the end of this Congress.
RFK Keeps Getting Numbers to Make Ballots
Update: RFK makes the ballot levels needed in Nevada. People really need to start running consistent three-way polling in these states. Most everything we’ve got is five way, which usually shows double digit undecideds — but supposes some Cornel West ballot effort not in evidence.
Kennedy's campaign said Tuesday that it cleared the signature threshold in Nevada, while his allied super PAC has already said sufficient signatures in Arizona and Georgia have been collected.
In Nevada, Biden beat former President Trump by fewer than 40,000 votes in 2020. Biden won Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes and Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020.
Kennedy has already qualified for the ballot in Utah, and his campaign has filed the necessary signatures to be on the ballot in New Hampshire. Kennedy supporters collected the required signatures in Hawaii…
The super PAC behind Kennedy's campaign, American Values 2024, said it has gathered enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina, and it is closing in on Michigan.
The American Values super PAC pledged last year to spend up to $15 million on Kennedy's ballot access mission.
"We are currently prioritizing closing out Michigan and will focus on both Texas and New York when signature-gathering commences," AV24 said in a statement to Axios.
So at this stage, realistically, RFK will at least be on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah. Those seven states alone include 3 of the most important swing states, and account for 71 electoral votes. And the RFK factor could go sideways in creating surprising outcomes and requiring recounts. A reminder: fewer than 3,500 votes for Pat Buchanan were enough to send the Florida 2000 vote to the Supreme Court — 2024 could have that happen in more than one state.
Feature
Items of Interest
Foreign
Ukraine enters new phase of war: Dig, dig, dig.
Russian missile hits near Zelensky motorcade.
Ukraine’s first lady snubbed White House to avoid Navalny’s widow.
China’s technology step: delete America.
Domestic
House Democrats worry about Biden having a senior moment in SOTU.
Jeff Zients’ status and the SOTU.
Mike Johnson’s SOTU guests include sports stars, cops.
Jewish Democrats wrongly listed as backers of pro-Palestine bill.
Alabama governor signs bill protecting IVF.
Arizona pro-lifers don’t want abortion referendum.
Sinema’s retirement makes candidates move to middle.
DNA evidence scandal puts criminal cases at risk.
Lawfare
Trump allies want RNC to pay legal bills.
Four most shocking revelations from Fani Willis trial.
Turley on Fani Willis findings.
2024
Trump and the future of the liberal order.
Stanley: Nikki Haley offered the GOP a non-Trump future, they rejected it.
Dean Phillips ends longshot challenge to Biden.
Charles Barkley rips Biden and Democrats for not caring about black people.
Ephemera
Jake Paul to fight Mike Tyson on Netflix.
Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal to star in Broadway’s Othello.
J.K. Rowling reported to police for misgendering.
The controversy of the Nike Panda Dunk.
Coffee making myths that are holding you back.
Podcast
Quote
“God is the only comfort, He is also the supreme terror: the thing we most need and the thing we most want to hide from. He is our only possible ally, and we have made ourselves His enemies. Some people talk as if meeting the gaze of absolute goodness would be fun. They need to think again. They are still only playing with religion. Goodness is either the great safety or the great danger - according to the way you react to it. And we have reacted the wrong way.”
— C.S. Lewis