The hard math is clear for Nikki Haley. Even as she overperformed many polls that had her struggling to top 30 percent in her home state, the overall path ahead only gets harder — and thanks to significant Republican rule changes that increased the number of winner-take-all states, Donald Trump should have the nomination officially locked up within a month. And while donor money can keep Haley afloat through that moment and perhaps beyond, she has lost the backing of the Koch machine, which is shifting its resources to lower level contests.
So what lessons, if any, should we take from Haley’s performance, and the fact that she ended up the last woman standing against a Trump nomination that has seemed inevitable for months? The overall takeaway is that Trump has a problem with the same portion of the coalition that proved difficult for Republicans to win in 2020 and 2022: namely, college graduates, non-evangelical women and people who don’t think he won the 2020 election.
The real problem for these voters is that they tend to be more positive about the economic situation than others in the coalition. If you’re largely insulated from the consequences of Joe Biden’s agenda on inflation, and if your retirement account has tracked with Wall Street, things just don’t seem as bad as they do for your average middle-class family. The hit you take from grocery and energy prices is felt, but not as severely. And if you happen to also be in the category that put a Ukraine flag sticker on your car, the foreign policy agenda of people around Trump (though oddly, not Trump himself!) may give you pause. Issues such as the border and crime in cities are certainly hot points for Democrats, but Republican inability to message around issues like abortion and IVF are going to be exploited by the media to make you hesitate.
This is the case at the moment. But it doesn’t mean it will remain the case in the fall. As Joe Biden’s decline continues and potentially accelerates, the possibility of Trump becoming the more stable candidate is actually quite real, assuming he sounds the more subdued, serious notes that he’s been doing of late. And the vice presidential choice is important as well — perhaps not enough to win you over as a voter, but avoiding an off-putting or inherently silly choice (Vivek Ramaswamy comes to mind — the worst choice by far for these voters) could prove enough to rationalize another Trump term.
The most important thing is for Trump, and for those around him, to recognize that they need to win a certain portion of these voters, and that turning them off for a general election is a real problem. Trump’s surrogates don’t need to make these voters feel all warm and fuzzy. But they do need to make the 2024 version of Trump the kind of stable candidate he’s shown the potential to be when he’s not obsessing over personal faults and vengeance against his enemies. Keeping that trick going is key.
Ronna McDaniel’s List of Accomplishments
A decade of total absolute suck.
No Really Ronna McDaniel’s Accomplishments
Here’s what she thinks they are.
“Some of my proudest accomplishments include firing Nancy Pelosi, winning the popular vote in 2022, creating an Election Integrity Department, building the committee’s first small dollar grassroots donor program, strengthening our state parties through our Growing Republican Organizations to Win program, expanding the Party through minority outreach at our community centers, and launching Bank Your Vote to get Republicans to commit to voting early," she said.
“I have decided to step aside at our Spring Training on March 8 in Houston to allow our nominee to select a Chair of their choosing," she added. "The RNC has historically undergone change once we have a nominee and it has always been my intention to honor that tradition."
Ah yes, tradition, that’s why you’re out.
Alexei Navalny Killed on Eve of Prisoner Deal
At least according to claims from his camp.
A bombshell video by Alexei Navalny’s team claims that the Russian opposition politician was deliberately killed on President Vladimir Putin’s orders on the eve of a prisoner exchange that would have seen him released in return for an FSB assassin jailed in Germany.
In a YouTube video published Monday titled “Why did Putin kill Navalny now?” the opposition politician’s close ally Maria Pevchikh said that after months of lobbying for a prisoner swap involving Navalny, “by the spring of last year our plan was approved.”
“Navalny was supposed to be free in the coming days because we had achieved a decision on his exchange,” she said. Pevchikh added that Russian billionaire oligarch Roman Abramovich had acted as a personal liaison between Western officials and Putin in brokering the deal. POLITICO has not been able to independently verify Pevchikh’s claims.
Pevchikh said the deal included Vadim Krasikov, an FSB agent jailed in Germany for murdering a former Chechen commander in 2019, and “two American citizens.”
Pevchikh added she had received confirmation late on Feb. 15 that such a swap was going to take place but believed Putin then changed his mind.
At least they’ve got that train station, that Aldi, and that knockoff McDonalds.
Hunter: If I Fall Off The Wagon It’s GOP’s Fault
An interview timed before his testimony this week.
He told Axios in a rare interview that he sees his continued sobriety as crucial not only to his life — but also to ensuring Donald Trump doesn't return to the Oval Office.
"Most importantly, you have to believe that you're worth the work, or you'll never be able to get sober. But I often do think of the profound consequences of failure here," Hunter said.
"Maybe it's the ultimate test for a recovering addict — I don't know," Hunter Biden said. "I have always been in awe of people who have stayed clean and sober through tragedies and obstacles few people ever face. They are my heroes, my inspiration."
He added that in this case, "I have something much bigger than even myself at stake. We are in the middle of a fight for the future of democracy."
A slip by Hunter would weigh heavily on the president as he seeks re-election. Republicans and conservative tabloids have relished documenting Hunter's alcohol and drug addictions.
Hunter's actions during his struggles with addiction from 2013 to 2018, along with his foreign business dealings, will be at the center of his testimony behind closed doors Wednesday as he is questioned by the GOP-led House Oversight and Judiciary committees.
Feature
Items of Interest
Foreign
NATO, EU consider sending soldiers to Ukraine.
31,000 Ukraine troops killed by Russia.
Amid pressure, entire Palestinian Authority government resigns.
U.S. airman self-immolates in front of Israel embassy.
Domestic
Biden and Johnson government funding clash sets up shutdown.
Andy Kim beats Tammy Murphy in New Jersey.
Intel agencies fear Trump’s return.
New election year, new Russiagate claims.
More Russian interference allegations already.
More than 1,500 migrants dropped off in San Diego.
Biden to make rare visit to border.
Outrage over the killing of Laken Riley.
Mafia hitman tries to kill priest with bleach in communion wine.
Republicans plan sweeping abortion restrictions in second Trump term.
2024
Gretchen Whitmer’s big 2024 test.
Biden losing to Trump among younger voters.
Biden’s challenge in Michigan.
Trump’s strong staying power with white working class.
Why Trump’s primary results are underperforming.
Tech
Why Trump, Kennedy are chasing Jessica Reed Kraus.
Kara Swisher attacks “boy kings” of tech.
Big tech censorship goes to Supreme Court.
Ephemera
The terminology of Dune Part Two.
Shane Gillis’ unaired Liberty ad.
The tradwife trend and the end of the girlboss.
Podcast
Quote
“The leverage we gained by relying on America’s sense of fallenness came at the price of taking on, and then living with, an identity of grievance and entitlement.”
— Shelby Steele