In the end, the lesson of Nikki Haley’s run is that Donald Trump defeated every wing of the Republican Party along the way to becoming its champion. In 2016, he beat the avatar of Tea Party constitutional populism in Ted Cruz. In 2024, he bested the reformist culture war version of himself in Ron DeSantis, and then dispatched the post-George W. Bush-era form of suburbanite compassionate conservatism in Haley, who speaks in a combination of defense-industry jargon and Bible verses. He even brought the older era of Chamber of Commerce Federalist Society Reaganite to heel, with Mitch McConnell endorsing him today. Trump’s dominance over the GOP is total.
The problem Trump has, of course, is that he can’t win just with that authoritative GOP support. He needs a certain portion of Nikki Haley’s demographic in the six or seven key swing states that will make the difference in this election. That demographic has a strong resistance into being bullied into anything — well-educated suburban voters who are unenthused about an election where they hate both candidates nearly equally, for different reasons. These voters are the reason Glenn Youngkin, Brian Kemp and other Republican politicians who kept Trump at arm’s length were able to win, even over his animosity. As much as Republicans are used to threading the needle on these close national elections, Trump winning them over will dramatically increase his paths to victory.
So how do you do that? Tone is obviously one factor. The more Trump emphasizes winning through success and bringing people into the fold as opposed to driving people out of it and embarking on a mission of revenge, the better. Speaking seriously on issues like abortion and IVF matters. But the vice presidential choice has to be front of mind as well. If there’s one message to take away from Haley’s speech announcing her campaign’s suspension, it was: don’t pick Vivek, or anybody like him. Trump will have to weigh his tendency toward wanting to pick someone who stands as their own man or woman, and presumably the inheritor of the leading candidate for 2028, against the satisfaction of picking a Mini-Me.
What’s clear now is that there was no path for Haley within the Republican nomination once Ron DeSantis left the field. She needed him in the race to keep Trump’s totals lower and have any shot at states where she polled in the forties. It speaks again to the nature of the new populist coalition that makes up the GOP’s primary electorate that even a late-game injection of serious donor money couldn’t make a serious difference. The long-term question for the Republicans, though, is who can lead them after this cycle. Trump the individual has command of this new beast. But there will need to be others as well — and that’s definitely not Nikki Haley.
Other Lessons From the 2024 Primary
Why did Trump win the nomination? Because he transformed his party’s base during his first run for president and then reassured that base he was able to run aggressively one more time. DeSantis found there was no room to Trump’s right on social issues, or at least not enough to persuade primary voters. Haley found the centrist, internationalist wing was too small. She still presents a challenge to Trump, even if, as she says, she won’t run as an independent in the November election. The challenge is that her voters form a significant portion of the Republican electorate, roughly a third, and many of them are hesitant to vote for Trump in the general election. He needs to bring most of them back into the fold to win the White House. One open question is whether Haley herself will help him.
President Biden had a much easier time in the primaries, winning without serious competition. He even won New Hampshire as a write-in, no easy feat. His name wasn’t on the state’s ballot to avoid offending South Carolina, which Democrats had made their first primary. New Hampshire, they decided, was too white and too rural. South Carolina, by contrast, has a racially mixed population and is more representative of the Democratic Party. But New Hampshire refused to give way, so Biden was forced to run as a write-in. He secured a big win there, as well as in South Carolina.
So, the Fat Lady (she/her/hers) has sung. Trump and Biden now begin the long slog to November. What challenges does each nominee face?
Biden’s are easy to specify but hard to solve: the economy, immigration and his own physical frailty and cognitive decline. He must convince voters he is still sharp enough to hold the most demanding office on earth, or at least hide his deficiencies. He will try to mask the problems by relying almost entirely on advertisements, while avoiding long speeches, questions from reporters, and impromptu comments. Biden will do everything possible to avoid debates, or at least to limit the number. A friendly media should help on all counts.
More from Amber Duke, Matt McDonald, Telegraph, WSJ.
In Texas, School Choice Victories
Greg Abbott will do what he wants.
In a victory for Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, at least nine House Republicans appeared to have lost their primaries on Tuesday evening.
Another eight members, at least, were also forced into runoffs this May 28 — including House Speaker Dade Phelan who was the No. 1 target of the far right.
The two state leaders and other prominent Republicans, like Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and former president Donald Trump, endorsed challengers in dozens of races citing the incumbents’ disloyalty to the party.
The Tuesday night drubbing serves as a cautionary reminder that elected Republicans, regardless of their seniority and length of tenure, cross the party’s base at their peril. Challengers and their surrogates framed the Texas House as an institution that catered to liberals and thwarted the conservative priorities.
In particular, Abbott vowed revenge on those House Republicans who helped kill his signature legislative priority to pass school vouchers and Paxton separately targeted Republicans who voted to impeach him last summer.
As many challengers attempted to outflank incumbents on the right, the result signals that the House will likely continue to embrace more conservative policies. It will also become more receptive to school vouchers.